Abstract
The evolution of warfare in the digital age has transformed cyberspace into a central domain of strategic competition and military operations. Nation-state actors increasingly employ cyber tools to achieve geopolitical objectives without resorting to kinetic force, exploiting vulnerabilities in interconnected critical infrastructures. This paper presents a mathematical framework to quantify and simulate the pre-conflict phase of cyber warfare, integrating offensive and defensive cyber capabilities (OCC and DCC) within the PMESII analytical model. The proposed approach provides a structured, quantitative foundation for assessing the strategic effects of cyber operations and supports decision-making under uncertainty.
Keywords: cyber warfare, mathematical modelling, PMESII, simulation, hybrid warfare, strategic analysis